usvi-on-line
So far, so good...
So far, so good...
Hopefully, forum members don't subscribe to the causally challenged notion that talking about a good thing runs the risk of "hexing" it, but I can't help note that this hurricane season has been a cakewalk for the Lesser Antilles. 2013 came within a few hours of setting a record for the latest first hurricane ever, and the typical August and September pattern of a succession of storms forming off the coast of Africa and heading towards the VI has been nearly completely absent this year.
Opinions differ as to just why we have had such an unusual season, but among the potential causes is Sahara dust, which blocks sunlight from reaching the sea surface, and warms the normally cold air higher up, where this thermal inversion denies developing thunderclouds their upward impetus. There have also been steady and strong upper level winds this season, which shear the tops off thunderclouds that make it that high. For all I know, storm formation could shortly reverse course and regress towards the mean, but there are grounds for thinking that this won't be the case.
A couple of years ago, we put up all of the aluminum storm panels at Coconuts for Hurricane Irene, and I presumed that the panels would then be left up through the storm season (bookings were much lighter then). I was startled when our contractor sent us a photo at the beginning of October that showed them all taken down. He replied to my concerned phone call with a comment that October 1st is generally considered the end of the VI's hurricane season. I was initially skeptical of such local knowledge, but as the NOAA plots in this informative article from last weeks Times-Picayune show, October hurricanes do tend to to occur well west of the VI:
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... et_bu.html
So we will continue to keep an eye on the NHC website, but as for now, my favorite tropical image is this one:
All the best,
Kevin
Opinions differ as to just why we have had such an unusual season, but among the potential causes is Sahara dust, which blocks sunlight from reaching the sea surface, and warms the normally cold air higher up, where this thermal inversion denies developing thunderclouds their upward impetus. There have also been steady and strong upper level winds this season, which shear the tops off thunderclouds that make it that high. For all I know, storm formation could shortly reverse course and regress towards the mean, but there are grounds for thinking that this won't be the case.
A couple of years ago, we put up all of the aluminum storm panels at Coconuts for Hurricane Irene, and I presumed that the panels would then be left up through the storm season (bookings were much lighter then). I was startled when our contractor sent us a photo at the beginning of October that showed them all taken down. He replied to my concerned phone call with a comment that October 1st is generally considered the end of the VI's hurricane season. I was initially skeptical of such local knowledge, but as the NOAA plots in this informative article from last weeks Times-Picayune show, October hurricanes do tend to to occur well west of the VI:
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... et_bu.html
So we will continue to keep an eye on the NHC website, but as for now, my favorite tropical image is this one:
- Favorite image
Kevin
Re: So far, so good...
Fingers crossed for the next 2 weeks and beyond........
I hear it is HOT down there. Heat index 100+? Whew! Sweatin' already!
I hear it is HOT down there. Heat index 100+? Whew! Sweatin' already!
Re: So far, so good...
Yes, I have a huge problem with jinxing things but since you provided a scientific explanation, you are forgiven!
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Bonny in CA
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Randy in MD
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- Location: Shady Side, MD
Re: So far, so good...
Don't let your guard down...
Just 5 years ago on October 15th, Hurricane Omar had formed south of Jamaica and was on an unusual northeast path straight towards towards St. John, but jogged a little to the east at the last moment, the center passing just 40 miles away.
It was a Category 4 storm...
We were shuttered in our home overnight, fearing the worst, but hoping for the best...
Woke up to a beautiful morning and took a lot of pleasure in taking the shutters down...
Just 5 years ago on October 15th, Hurricane Omar had formed south of Jamaica and was on an unusual northeast path straight towards towards St. John, but jogged a little to the east at the last moment, the center passing just 40 miles away.
It was a Category 4 storm...
We were shuttered in our home overnight, fearing the worst, but hoping for the best...
Woke up to a beautiful morning and took a lot of pleasure in taking the shutters down...