Fall Villa Availability?

Travel discussion for St. John
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RickG
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Location: Coral Bay, St. John

Fall Villa Availability?

Post by RickG »

I've been slowly looking over a couple of villas for the Fall. I'm seeing completely open October/November at a lot of places. Are villa bookings down that much across the board?

Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes - Coral Bay - St. John, VI
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Gromit
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Post by Gromit »

When I was looking for December there was A LOT that was wide open.

I've heard thru the grapevine that some villa co's are willing to negotiate....
*Another fine scatterbrained production
lavender
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Location: Canandaigua, NY

Post by lavender »

We booked our vacation that we took last week (May 1st - 8th) the last week of March. I always thought that was a very popular time to travel and when we started villa shopping I could not believe the number of villas that were available - some also offering more of a discount even off from low season rates. So yes I think there is plenty of availability for folks to choose from!
mindehankins
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Post by mindehankins »

We're looking for October/November this year too. Really hope to meet you in person, to thank you for all your helpfulness, Rick.
Kentuckygirl
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Post by Kentuckygirl »

I've been looking too and excited about the open calendars, hoping for no crowds! I was thinking that maybe no one else noticed!
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Pianogrl
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Post by Pianogrl »

Hope to see you again! BB perhaps??? rpplano says HI.

Minde...hope y'all can come then also! So great to meet you two last year!
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Diana2
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Post by Diana2 »

I can't remember it ever being as quiet and uncrowded than it is right now on STJ and we've been coming for nearly 20 years. We're at Caneel right now and they say it's 50% occupancy but I doubt that it's even that full. We've been on-island nearly 2 weeks and we've had no issues with parking, crowded beaches or restaurants. The staff here say it's better than it was last year but we were in a villa last year in June and I think it's quieter now than it was then.
Kentuckygirl
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Post by Kentuckygirl »

Diana, thanks for the live input! I love the idea of quieter, even though I've really never seen it crowded, only going in the off-season. I'm looking forward to your review of Apito when you return. Enjoy the rest of your trip!
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Connie
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Post by Connie »

If it's any indication, our flights were wide open. I was really surprised. We were able to move up some rows and spread out.

In a way, it's really a shame.
54b
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Post by 54b »

Total shot in the dark, but can't you attribute the lack of villa occupancy to the Grande Bay complex?

I've read a lot about these units over on TA. Many diehards and locals seem to consider it the very epitome of excess and the poster child for an over-developed STJ.

But I would imagine those units appeal to a large segment of the vacationing population, particularly first timers, as they're more like a hotel without the fuss and walking distance to the Cruz Bay night life. For a newbie that's never rented a villa and has been conditioned to think you're supposed to stay in one spot when you get to an island, I'm sure they're quite attractive.

Whether or not Grande Bay rentals are cannibalizing villa reservations is debatable, but in the span of a month, I've read posts that claim the island is busier than ever and some that claim it's half full.

My guess is that the number of visitors to STJ (year to year) is probably flat to slightly up while the number of available rental units has dramatically increased.

Bottom line, it appears to be a renters market...good for us, bad for villa owners. The pendulum has swung.

Or maybe it's just a sign the recession is getting worse.

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RickG
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Post by RickG »

Grande Bay? Nope, that's a different market segment. Nothing bigger than 2 bedroom on the rental market.

Last confirmed count I had was 630 villas on the rental market, with another 30 that have come on since then. A lot of smaller short-term rentals have been converted back to long-term rentals. Check out the board the next time you are in Connections.

This is looking like a supply and demand problem. Adam Smith had a lot to say about this back around 1776. Prices will go down. Some of the new mega-villas that are unsustainable without water deliveries are going to end up being owned by banks. Classic boom and bust.

The villas that are going to do well are the ones that have good direct marketing - like Bongo Bongo, Reef Madness and Keep Left's.

Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes - Coral Bay - St. John, VI
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RickG
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Post by RickG »

Still seeing a ton of vacancies 10/28 through 11/14. We're not feeling a lot of pressure to pick a week and some of our friends are still trying to work out their office schedules. With round trip air out of DC to STT running $266 it might make sense to buy the tickets and get a villa deal right before we travel.

It's nice for the traveler in me to have a lot of choices on accommodations. Demand and supply are out of whack, time for a price correction.

Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes - Coral Bay - St. John, VI
bchbum82
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Post by bchbum82 »

Hey RickG are you going to be at BB haloween night again this year?
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RickG
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Post by RickG »

bchbum82 wrote:Hey RickG are you going to be at BB haloween night again this year?
We're planning on being on island for Halloween. We'll see how the whole thing works out.

Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes - Coral Bay - St. John, VI
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