usvi-on-line
St. John Crime O/T
St. John Crime O/T
Thanks pjayer, actually I agree. But, the numbers have been bugging me so I grabbed lunch, a calculator and a horse whip to compare STJ to DC for violent crime. So I took this one off-topic. The originial discussion is at: http://www.virgin-islands-on-line.com/f ... 0&start=75pjayer wrote:
What I'm left with is the conclusion that I don't know if I'm less safe on St. John than at home. In fact, given the data discussed and what I've been able to find reported the answer to that question cannot be derived without significant further investigation.
Given the Tradewinds data and the FBI UCR data http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_05.html this is what I came up with:
St. John - *2,205 violent crimes per 100,000 people
4,307 population (DOI est. 2004 http://www.doi.gov/oia/Islandpages/vipage.htm )
95 violent crimes in 2007
murder and nonnegligent manslaughter: 3
forcible rape: 4
robbery: 1+1+13+71 = 86
aggravated assault: 2
Washington, DC - 1,508 violent crimes per 100,000 people
581,530 population
8,772 violent crimes in 2006
- murder and nonnegligent manslaughter: +169
- forcible rape: 185
- robbery: 3829
- aggravated assault: 4589
Something to remember is that our data is problematic. If we assume that population counts are correct and the crime rate as reported by the Tradewinds is correct then we can make a comparison. But the population count is based on the 2000 Census with a small natural-birth growth of 1.1% a year factored in by DOI and does not take into account illegal immigration, legal immigration or internal migration. The data coming out of the USVI is not being reported under the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program, so we don't know if it under reports or over reports the ground-truth.
The real challenge here is the Law of Small Numbers that drives a hasty generalization that we are less safe as tourists on St. John than we are at home. These metrics do not address tourist incidents of violent crime over the population of tourists. We also don't know if St. John residents are more prone to crime than other jurisdictions because the incidents related to tourists have not been subtracted from those regarding resident population. The Tradewinds' crime report is really crime across all legal permanent residents AND all transients. *Deriving per capita statistics from the Tradewinds report is unsound.
The FBI, in their documentation for their Uniform Crime Reporting program (the Federal program that tries to track these metrics), cautions against using this information to rank jurisdictions with a long list of caveats http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/about/v ... crime.html , "Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the various unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction." They say that for statistics derived from normalized validated data. It is even more true for the St. John data.
So, what do we actually know, statistics based on broken data aside?
Bad things happen sometimes.
It's worth taking precautions.
Don't expect much help from the local police force.
Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes - Coral Bay - St. John, VI
conclusions
My lingering problem is that this could be drastically reduced if the authorities were motivated to try. Something seems missing in the citizen/government relationship that is causiong such a indifferent attitude from the authorities. I care enough about this little paradise to expect better effort from the police. An actual presence on the roads with marked units would be a start. Last trip, I saw only one moving patrol car in 10 days time.
-
bayer40601
- Posts: 612
- Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2007 1:06 pm
- Location: Kentucky
I happen to agree with this thought, but I wonder just what other changes we might see happen on STJ if there were a greater motivation. Would they be for the better or would they create changes which would cause STJ to become something other than what we all fell for in the first place?My lingering problem is that this could be drastically reduced if the authorities were motivated to try.
How many more days?
As one of the locals who resisted responding to the original thread, I can throw in a few random thoughts.
1. In the 1970's, crime against tourists and resident "continentals" was very high on St. Croix and St. Thomas. I won't go into the details, but people left those islands in droves.
St. John had a very low crime rate, and a pretty responsive police force at that time... with a population under 2000, it would have been very weird if they hadn't been responsive.
2. Apparently with the rise of drug and gang culture, violent crime became increasingly focused within the West Indian community by the 1990's.
3. On St. John, change has been very rapid since the 1980's. I personally feel that our crime remains relatively low, considering those 400-600 rental villas. I am one of those who doesn't lock my door or my car (except if it's in St. Thomas with a laptop in it). My last experience with theft here was in 1983.
4. Our government has been run by incompetent and corrupt people overwhelmingly since the 1980's, with a few exceptions. I'm talking about most of our governors and local senators. This has,tragically, become so much the norm that it is very difficult for anyone to make changes. We have seen this week two former commissioners jailed, and the former head of the hospital arrested. I do believe that our current Governor is trying very hard, but our bloated bureaucracy almost ensures failure.
5. Unlike some places that have an "us and them" double standard with law enforcement, our police inaction is not reserved for foreigners. While there are certainly cases where the perps are known and ignored because of connections, there aren't any cases I can think of where police work was sharper because the victim was a "belonger". I think basically the M.O. is to try to avoid getting bad guys pissed off at you. AS with becoming a politician, almost anyone who wants to be a police in the V.I. probably has a desire for power more than a drive to serve the common good.
Finally, I would recommend to all of you who have a real interest in the situation and its causes to try to get hold of a book entitled "Rape of the American Virgins" by Edward A. O'Neill. It will be hard to find, since it was published in 1972, but was a stunningly truthful look at what had already happened to St. Thomas and St. Croix by that date. A lot of us here on St. John have re-read it in recent years,and all have said the same thing: "Can you believe how long ago he wrote that?" because so many of the chickens that have come home to roost were hatched in the 1960's (Block that Metaphor!).
1. In the 1970's, crime against tourists and resident "continentals" was very high on St. Croix and St. Thomas. I won't go into the details, but people left those islands in droves.
St. John had a very low crime rate, and a pretty responsive police force at that time... with a population under 2000, it would have been very weird if they hadn't been responsive.
2. Apparently with the rise of drug and gang culture, violent crime became increasingly focused within the West Indian community by the 1990's.
3. On St. John, change has been very rapid since the 1980's. I personally feel that our crime remains relatively low, considering those 400-600 rental villas. I am one of those who doesn't lock my door or my car (except if it's in St. Thomas with a laptop in it). My last experience with theft here was in 1983.
4. Our government has been run by incompetent and corrupt people overwhelmingly since the 1980's, with a few exceptions. I'm talking about most of our governors and local senators. This has,tragically, become so much the norm that it is very difficult for anyone to make changes. We have seen this week two former commissioners jailed, and the former head of the hospital arrested. I do believe that our current Governor is trying very hard, but our bloated bureaucracy almost ensures failure.
5. Unlike some places that have an "us and them" double standard with law enforcement, our police inaction is not reserved for foreigners. While there are certainly cases where the perps are known and ignored because of connections, there aren't any cases I can think of where police work was sharper because the victim was a "belonger". I think basically the M.O. is to try to avoid getting bad guys pissed off at you. AS with becoming a politician, almost anyone who wants to be a police in the V.I. probably has a desire for power more than a drive to serve the common good.
Finally, I would recommend to all of you who have a real interest in the situation and its causes to try to get hold of a book entitled "Rape of the American Virgins" by Edward A. O'Neill. It will be hard to find, since it was published in 1972, but was a stunningly truthful look at what had already happened to St. Thomas and St. Croix by that date. A lot of us here on St. John have re-read it in recent years,and all have said the same thing: "Can you believe how long ago he wrote that?" because so many of the chickens that have come home to roost were hatched in the 1960's (Block that Metaphor!).
Re: St. John Crime O/T
After reading RickG's post and the FBI link, here's my answer to Lex's questions.
Have most people's impression of STJ been changed by this info and analysis?
My impression of STJ has not been changed by this info as I was already aware of it from other sources.
Do most people now consider STJ to have a very high crime rate and to be unsafe?
Based on the information in this thread, I don't consider STJ to have a high crime rate and to be unsafe.
The FBI link RickG cites in his thread clearly cautions people against drawing any conclusions based solely on crime rates between locations. Here's an excerpt.
The data user is, therefore, cautioned against comparing statistical data of individual reporting units from cities, counties, metropolitan areas, states, or colleges or universities solely on the basis on their population coverage or student enrollment. Until data users examine all the variables that affect crime in a town, city, county, state, region, or college or university, they can make no meaningful comparisons.
-
designbyroe
- Posts: 1348
- Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:27 pm
- Location: Chilaxin on White Bay at least in my mind
Crime in St. John
OK ..I don’t post too many things, unless it grabs me by the short hairs! I had this nice little response going on after I logged in and had it all nice and typed out but the bourbon kicked in, fell asleep in my chair, woke up finished it hit submit and it went away. OK so I took too much time and I timed out…so what else is new. So lets talk about crime!
I need to respond to this being a cop and all for 30+ years. RickG no offense to the stats you got nor do I have an argument against the numbers you posted. They are on the money! BUT…what if the cops don’t report them correctly? UCR’s are only as good as the reporting agency.
For 10+ years I transmitted our UCR’s to the state and feds. Can these stats be altered? …oh hello ABSOLUTELY! The UCR is broken down into two parts…part 1 crimes is the serious crap and part 2 crimes is the junk. OK for example…maybe the homicide we can call a suicide and that rape will call it consensual….oh and that shooting (where the guy didn’t die) will call that harassment and not an Agg Assault. Your house is broken into and stuff ripped off is a burglary. (PA is a felony 1) some departments would lock the guy up for disorderly conduct (same as traffic ticket)……HELLO…. So that is what I am saying. The stats are only as good as the reporting agency.
Personally my wife and I have been going to St. John for the last 6 years and have never had a problem and ALWAYS had a great time. However, AM I PARANOID…no I am not…. cautious …ABSOLUTLEY! Do I lock my car… yes. Do I secure my Villa? YES I Do!.... I do it at home and I do it on vacation. My wife and I work too hard for what we have and I am not willing to “give it away” to some scum bag!!
I believe RickG summed it up best with “Don't expect much help from the local police force”. Last year we are on coral bay side and see a police officer walk over to the bartender and get a “refreshment”. I ask the bartender is that normal? His response is… yeah if I don’t want a problem…yes it is a common practice. WELL…. I hear of any of my officers taking one from the bar his A$$ belongs to me and will get some time off !
Back to the crime problem…..What was it a year or two ago a kid was stabbed to death at a bar right next to the police department. Well that kid lived in the area I work and I can tell you some war stories about him from the guys under me that had contact with him. Does that mean he should have been stabbed to death….ABSOLUTLEY NOT!!!! If it were not for the parents practically living down in St. John pushing the cops buttons, until the cops did something and arrested someone, nothing probably would have been done and that old UCR report may or may have not had been reported correctly! … talk to the locals they will tell you what’s going on. I am not going to get into that here.
The only thing I have to say is whether you live on the rock or vacation there is take all the necessary precautions. Lock your villa, your car, hide your stuff, you are not immune to crime just because you are on vacation. Last example, I swear…We have been having a few burglaries both residential and commercial lately. The Chief and I decided we need to put someone out there in one of our very plain units to locate people of a suspicious nature. WELL …wouldn’t you know it first night out we grab a guy sneaking around in the woods a little foot race and the game is over. We lock him up for loitering and prowling etc…..WHERE DO YOU THINK HE IS FROM ? St. Thomas… go figure! A crack head with a host of other issues…..I almost peeeed myself laughing so hard especially after reading this on the forum.
So enough of this crap….if your on vacation you need to take care of business like you were home…HUGO….I cant agree enough with you on 4 and 5…..but dude…you really need to lock your stuff up.
Anyone has a problem with what I said you can certainly respond here or to me, privately or on the forum.
I need to respond to this being a cop and all for 30+ years. RickG no offense to the stats you got nor do I have an argument against the numbers you posted. They are on the money! BUT…what if the cops don’t report them correctly? UCR’s are only as good as the reporting agency.
For 10+ years I transmitted our UCR’s to the state and feds. Can these stats be altered? …oh hello ABSOLUTELY! The UCR is broken down into two parts…part 1 crimes is the serious crap and part 2 crimes is the junk. OK for example…maybe the homicide we can call a suicide and that rape will call it consensual….oh and that shooting (where the guy didn’t die) will call that harassment and not an Agg Assault. Your house is broken into and stuff ripped off is a burglary. (PA is a felony 1) some departments would lock the guy up for disorderly conduct (same as traffic ticket)……HELLO…. So that is what I am saying. The stats are only as good as the reporting agency.
Personally my wife and I have been going to St. John for the last 6 years and have never had a problem and ALWAYS had a great time. However, AM I PARANOID…no I am not…. cautious …ABSOLUTLEY! Do I lock my car… yes. Do I secure my Villa? YES I Do!.... I do it at home and I do it on vacation. My wife and I work too hard for what we have and I am not willing to “give it away” to some scum bag!!
I believe RickG summed it up best with “Don't expect much help from the local police force”. Last year we are on coral bay side and see a police officer walk over to the bartender and get a “refreshment”. I ask the bartender is that normal? His response is… yeah if I don’t want a problem…yes it is a common practice. WELL…. I hear of any of my officers taking one from the bar his A$$ belongs to me and will get some time off !
Back to the crime problem…..What was it a year or two ago a kid was stabbed to death at a bar right next to the police department. Well that kid lived in the area I work and I can tell you some war stories about him from the guys under me that had contact with him. Does that mean he should have been stabbed to death….ABSOLUTLEY NOT!!!! If it were not for the parents practically living down in St. John pushing the cops buttons, until the cops did something and arrested someone, nothing probably would have been done and that old UCR report may or may have not had been reported correctly! … talk to the locals they will tell you what’s going on. I am not going to get into that here.
The only thing I have to say is whether you live on the rock or vacation there is take all the necessary precautions. Lock your villa, your car, hide your stuff, you are not immune to crime just because you are on vacation. Last example, I swear…We have been having a few burglaries both residential and commercial lately. The Chief and I decided we need to put someone out there in one of our very plain units to locate people of a suspicious nature. WELL …wouldn’t you know it first night out we grab a guy sneaking around in the woods a little foot race and the game is over. We lock him up for loitering and prowling etc…..WHERE DO YOU THINK HE IS FROM ? St. Thomas… go figure! A crack head with a host of other issues…..I almost peeeed myself laughing so hard especially after reading this on the forum.
So enough of this crap….if your on vacation you need to take care of business like you were home…HUGO….I cant agree enough with you on 4 and 5…..but dude…you really need to lock your stuff up.
Anyone has a problem with what I said you can certainly respond here or to me, privately or on the forum.
Great stuff from Hugo and Crash. Crash, bad data is bad data and good data can get crapped on.
Hugo, I've been going to the US and British Virgins since my first trip compliments of the US Navy in 1990. One of the big things I've noticed is a change in style and attitude of the youths, now adults. The kids who used to look like locals now look like MTG Gangsta Rappers with attitudes to match. My first couple of trips to Tortola saw me happy to walk anywhere in Road Town at night, but after 1996 I felt like I was getting some angry glares. Satellite dishes? Still, if I'm driving early in the morning on a school day the school kids convince me to give them a ride to school and I drop a car load off. They sure are friendly then and I start my day with a smile. There's hope.
The island economy is marginal at best. The influx of major $$$ into St. John over the last ten years has accentuated the gap between the rich and poor and driven class resentment. What are the details and end-results?
I think I need to find a copy of Hugo's recommended book. The cheapest I found it for sale was at Abebooks for $58. Here's a library search, plug in your zip code - http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/524832&tab ... 22101#tabs - it may be time for a visit to the Library of Congress, its closer the the UM library - http://lccn.loc.gov/72189917
Cheers, RickG
Hugo, I've been going to the US and British Virgins since my first trip compliments of the US Navy in 1990. One of the big things I've noticed is a change in style and attitude of the youths, now adults. The kids who used to look like locals now look like MTG Gangsta Rappers with attitudes to match. My first couple of trips to Tortola saw me happy to walk anywhere in Road Town at night, but after 1996 I felt like I was getting some angry glares. Satellite dishes? Still, if I'm driving early in the morning on a school day the school kids convince me to give them a ride to school and I drop a car load off. They sure are friendly then and I start my day with a smile. There's hope.
The island economy is marginal at best. The influx of major $$$ into St. John over the last ten years has accentuated the gap between the rich and poor and driven class resentment. What are the details and end-results?
I think I need to find a copy of Hugo's recommended book. The cheapest I found it for sale was at Abebooks for $58. Here's a library search, plug in your zip code - http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/524832&tab ... 22101#tabs - it may be time for a visit to the Library of Congress, its closer the the UM library - http://lccn.loc.gov/72189917
Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes - Coral Bay - St. John, VI
- well except prakashrige as he/she is new 
-
sailorgirl
- Posts: 1644
- Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2006 3:03 pm
Good morning, Pia,MB and sailorgirl. Jeez, I "heart" that horse picture on my previous post. It always makes me laugh and is so applicable at times.
BTW, I did finally purchase the book on Amazon.com that Hugo recommended above. I haven't read it yet, because I know it will upset me. (Not a good reason, I know.) But, it is on my short list of books to finish.
BTW, I did finally purchase the book on Amazon.com that Hugo recommended above. I haven't read it yet, because I know it will upset me. (Not a good reason, I know.) But, it is on my short list of books to finish.
When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Kentucky, because everything there happens 20 years after it happens anywhere else. – Mark Twain