breakin vir grande villa

[eramp76]

Lex, I guess we were there on one of the "every other days". We did everything we knew to do to avoid being victimized but were anyway.

I don't think anyone needs to get too bent out of shape about this, but everyone should not be naive about the situation either. We were kind of lulled into thinking STJ was some kind of utopia when it came to these kinds of things. It is not. It is an island that has poverty, drugs and crime. So does every other place on the planet (except Dubai I guess). So, it can happen to you. Prepare ahead of time. If you can't relax there, go somewhere else as papabou says.

By the way, we live in the Dallas Metroplex. We can't turn on the news without hearing of some kind of horrible crime committed.

[Teresa_Rae]

Just happened to be reading the Tradewinds and I did see the crime count for 2007 and 2008.

Looks like there were 288 Crimes (all kinds) and 5 have been solved. The rest are under investigation.

Here's a rundown:

St. John Tradewinds
Keeping Track
2007
Final Count
Homicide: 3
Solved: 0
Shootings: 2
Under Investigation: 1
Solved: 1
Stabbings: 0
Under Investigation: 0
Solved: 0
Armed Robberies: 1
Under Investigation: 1
Solved: 0
Arsons: 0
Under Investigation: 0
Solved: 0
1st Degree Burglaries: 1
Under Investigation: 1
Solved: 0
2nd Degree Burglaries: 13
Under Investigation: 13
Solved: 0
3rd Degree Burglaries: 71
Under Investigation: 72
Solved: 1
Grand Larcenies: 89
Under Investigation: 89
Solved: 0
Rapes: 4
Under Investigation: 2
Solved: 2
2008To-Date
Homicide: 0
Solved: 0
Shootings: 0
Under Investigation: 0
Solved: 0
Stabbings: 1
Under Investigation: 1
Solved: 0
Armed Robberies: 2
Under Investigation: 2
Solved: 1
Arsons: 0
Under Investigation: 0
Solved: 0
1st Degree Burglaries: 1
Under Investigation: 1
Solved: 0
2nd Degree Burglaries: 8
Under Investigation: 8
Solved: 0
3rd Degree Burglaries: 50
Under Investigation: 50
Solved: 0
Grand Larcenies: 42
Under Investigation: 42
Solved: 0
Rapes: 0
Under Investigation: 0
Solved: 0

Those numbers are truly staggering. For 2007 the murder rate per 100,000 was 71.4 (3 murders for 4200 people)....the city with the highest murder rate in the United States Gary, Indiana, had a 2006 murder rate of 48.3. Even if you take into consideration the 8 months that there have been no murders yet in 2008, the murder rate for 2007 and 2008 (as of the end of August) is 42.9…still shockingly high.

And the thing is, most towns of 4200 people probably have either never had a murder or it’s been 100 years since it’s happened.

So to answer your question Captain John, here are those numbers again with just the STJ figures added:

Murder: STJ/STT – 18 (it was 25 in 2003!), Nashville – 14 (STJ alone in 2007: 71)
Rape: STJ/STT – 67, Nashville – 57 (STJ alone in 2007: 95)
Robbery: STJ/STT – 236, Nashville – 432 (Can’t tell b/c Tradewinds only lists armed robberies)
Burglary: STJ/STT – 1602, Nashville – 1135 (Can’t tell for certain b/c STJ lists 1st, 2nd, & 3rd degree burglaries separately, but if all three types count than in 2007 that makes it 2023 for STJ)

[pjayer]

Numbers make my eyes cross. You'll have to explain why under the Tradewinds stats the rapes for 2007 equal 4, but then you say for 2007 the rapes in STJ equal 95. You'd never guess I was a Business Admin major.

[waterguy]

4200 is the resident pop. how many would it be if you included all the tourists

[Lex]

It's an interesting way to use the figures. If you just stick with the real numbers, what you have is 288 crimes reported on STJ in over a year and a half. That comes out to about one crime every other day. That doesn't sound too dire to me.

I'm a fairly concrete guy. For me, it's easier to grasp the significance of 1=1, rather than the theoretical significance of 1=24 or so.

[bayer40601]

Teresa Rae: I understand your use of numbers of crimes per 100,000 population. However, two comments.

1. Thank Goodness STJ does not have 100,000 residents.

2. Given the small size of the island population, it seems to me the best way to look at crime information for STJ is in absolute numbers. If you want to compare STJ to another location, then I agree to the use of the ratio per 100,000 population. But for those of us who visit there occasionally, absolute numbers are easier to understand.

[RickG]

Ya know, living in DC I've always thought there was something wrong with these kinds of games with statistics. If you normalize across a whole region rather than look at the detailed areas that have real problem. Hell, I've never been mugged when I go to the crack drive-through, they just point and laugh.

The only crime that matters is what really happens to you. Of all of the people I know my Father had his wallet stolen by a pickpocket in 1976 and one of my buddies had his catalytic converter stolen while parked at Dulles airport this year. Gee, that's scary. St. John has a lower per capita crime than DC? Okay.

Cheers, RickG

[Teresa_Rae]

Numbers make my eyes cross. You'll have to explain why under the Tradewinds stats the rapes for 2007 equal 4, but then you say for 2007 the rapes in STJ equal 95. You'd never guess I was a Business Admin major.

Crime stats are usually given in per capita numbers….per 100,000 people. It is the only way to compare apples to apples in crime data since no two towns have the exact same population. A crime “rate” is always a per capita rate, not a raw number.

So say one town has 100,000 people and there was 1 murder….that is 1 per 100,000. But you want to compare that town to a town of 200,000 people…if 2 people were murdered there (2 out of 200,000) the rate would still be 1 per 100,000 proportionally, so the towns would have equal murder rates, even though twice as many people were killed in one of the towns. You have to look at per capita rates to get a clear picture.

So on STJ, when there are 4 rapes among 4200 people, that is the same percentage as 95 rapes out of 100,000 people.

It's an interesting way to use the figures. If you just stick with the real numbers, what you have is 288 crimes reported on STJ in over a year and a half. That comes out to about one crime every other day. That doesn't sound too dire to me.
I'm a fairly concrete guy. For me, it's easier to grasp the significance of 1=1, rather than the theoretical significance of 1=24 or so.

I’m really not “using” the figures. Crime rates are always in per capita terms because raw numbers don’t really tell you much….you have to take the population into account or you’re comparing apples to oranges.

Whenever you hear anybody talk about high crime like “Detroit is the most murderous city in America,” they are talking about crime rates, not raw numbers. Other cities that are larger than Detroit have more murders in raw numbers, but when you look at the per capita rates, Detroit comes out on top.

Looking at per capita rates is truly the scientific, statistically honest way of looking at crime.

For instance, if I told you that Detroit had 418 murders in a year and Chicago had 468, you might think that murder in Chicago is just a bit worse than in Detroit. But when you take the population into account, Detroit has far fewer people than Chicago, and the per 100,000 capita murder rate in Detroit is 47.3 but it is only 16.4 in Chicago…so the murder rate in Detroit is nearly three times as bad as in Chicago…that’s why you have to look at rates and not just raw numbers.

I don’t know what you do for a living, but let’s say you sell tires. If you sell 1 million tires and 10 of them explode, per capita you’ve got 1 per 100,000, which maybe isn’t too bad. But if you only sold 100 tires and 10 of them exploded, now your per capita rate is 10,000 per 100,000….a much worse number. Just like 10 murders on STJ would be a really high rate but 10 murders in New York City would be no big deal…you have to take the population into account because the raw data is meaningless.

St. John has a lower per capita crime than DC? Okay.

Actually, STJ has higher per capita crime rate than DC in burglaries (657), rapes (31), and murders (29).

My whole point as I’ve stated is that many people think STJ is this small island of 4200 people with the amount of crime you’d expect in a small town of 4200 people. But STJ has a very disproportionate amount of crime and you can’t have the mindset that you’d have in any other small town.

My sister and my best friend live in a small town (and my husband and I own land there) with about the same population as STJ. There is one cop, and all he ever does is stop people for speeding. There are no stoplights in town and no need for them. There are never murders there and you hear about a burglary once a year, if at all. Everybody leaves their doors unlocked and their keys in the ignition of their cars in their driveways. Farmers leave their keys in the ignition of combines that cost a quarter of a million dollars and they never get stolen. Right now we’re putting in a lake on our property and the excavating company has over a million dollars worth of earth moving equipment sitting there…all with keys in the ignitions. That is the mentality I used to have when going to STJ…I figured that it was just like other small towns and I didn’t have anything to worry about. But then when I looked at the statistics I saw that STJ does have a lot of crime, so I changed my mentality. I still go there and I still love it but I am extra cautious in a way I wouldn’t be in any U.S. town of 4200 people.

Cheers! I need a painkiller.

[dehman]

One last thought- we should not get caught up in stats because as I said before it doesn't matter what it's like at home, we go there and (pay significantly for the experience) to not have to deal with this nonsense. Especially if you are on your deck or milling around your Villa. Also, lighting and alarms are important but they didn't make one bit of difference in this instance and many others. The police are using that as an excuse. As it's been so well put on this Forum-there seems to be no consequences, and that's on the rare occasion you get caught. I lived in downtown Baltimore and unfortunately we know crime (if you've seen The Wire!) and I still felt safe on my deck. I think the focus is on fixing things there because their stats our stats- it's apples an oranges as they say and everyone has endless choices of where to travel.

[hawksnestbay]

My biggest worry on the island is getting hit by one of the drunks from this forum that is "driving while blind".
Thankfully, the calender gives a pretty good report of which weeks to stay away.

[Lulu76]

I don't drive on STJ (I barely drive on the mainland), so you'll be OK on my week.

I don't think it has to do with the size of the town. I just think it's what the Caribbean has become. Very poor local residents and a lot of tourists with money and nice stuff coming for a week at a time. It's tempting. Because small towns with poor people here in the U.S. have drugs, break-ins and murders. I know this because my family is from a small town where there haven't been jobs since the coal mine closed. Everyone either makes or deals drugs and will rob you blind to pay for it. And, much like St. John, they have a local police force that doesn't solve crimes (like a boy found in the woods with his throat slit -- he was an informant -- and they ruled it accidental). Most of the time, the police are in on it or it's friends/families or they're just too lazy to do work.

It doesn't matter if you live in Detroit, small town USA or St. John, everywhere has more crime now because people are desperate. Everything is more expensive than usual, and less people have work. Crime is increasing everywhere.

[Nic in KC]

Two years ago we took a trip to a beautiful, all inclusive resort in the Riviera Maya. A few weeks before we were to go, a couple was murdered in their hotel room following their child's wedding. A horrible story. We never really thought of cancelling, but it did make us more aware of safety. Made sure everything locked and used them at all times when in the room. The resort was empty while we were there and the price dropped to where we paid only 400.00 total for the resort for the week. That and one other instance in Mexico has made me a very aware traveler. My husband and I both work in the middle of downtown KC and we are constantly aware at home too. He is in law enforcement and tangles with the worst of the worst on a regular basis.

At Sol Inclination I did even lock the bedroom doors when we went to bed at night. Wouldn't keep someone out for long, but every second that we are awake and know what's happening gives us time to respond. We will be even more cautious in October if we go and it may be wrong, but it'll make me a little more comfortable if we are staying at Sailview with locals on the same property!

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[Lulu76]

I agree with Nic. I wouldn't dream of cancelling my trip, but we may have to change villas and I am really, really leaning toward one where the owners are on the property. I have wanted to stay at Starlit Escape since we started to plan the trip, but that's really the feather in its cap at this point. I just don't know if I should tell the other girls why I'm leaning so heavily toward it... I don't want to scare them unnecessarily, but don't want them to be unaware at the same time.

P.S. I don't think we should sit around and be all doom and gloom, but I also don't think ignorance is bliss. Much like when I jetted off to Europe right after 9-11 (it was really cheap to travel then), I'm not letting the "bad guys" win and ruin my vacation, but I'll be smarter about it.

[pjayer]