Expect waves...

[Coconuts]

I just received this alert; Jost and Tortola provide protection, so the waves will be smaller than predicted, but it is still worth noting.

Meteorological - HIGH SURF ADVISORY

Issued By: NWS San Juan (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
Affected Jurisdictions: St. John, St. Thomas Counties

Headline: High Surf Advisory issued November 14 at 4:29PM AST until November 17 at 8:00AM AST by NWS San Juan

...Hazardous Surf Conditions Expected Early Friday Morning... .Long Period Northwest Swells Of 7 To 8 Feet Between 12 To 15 Seconds Will Invade The Local Atlantic Waters And Caribbean Passages Starting Friday Morning. These Long Period Swells Will Result In Large Breaking Waves Between 10 To 14 Feet. As A Result....Hazardous Surf Conditions Are Expected Along The Northwest Through North Facing Coastlines Of Puerto Rico...Culebra And The Northern U.S. Virgin Islands From Friday And Continuing Through At Least Sunday. Dangerous Rip Currents Will Be Likely And Inexperienced Surfers...Swimmers And Beachgoers Are Urged To Remain Out Of The Local Atlantic Waters As Rough And Hazardous Seas Are Expected Through The Weekend. ...High Surf Advisory In Effect From 4 AM Friday To 8 AM AST Sunday... The National Weather Service In San Juan Has Issued A High Surf Advisory...Which Is In Effect From 4 AM Friday To 8 AM AST Sunday. * Waves And Surf...7 To 8 Feet Waves With Breaking Waves Of 10 To 14 Feet. * Timing...From Early Friday Morning Through At Least Sunday. * Impacts...Large Breaking Waves Will Create Rough Surf Conditions And Frequent Rip Currents. Minor Beach Erosion Is Possible Around The Time Of High Tide. The Times Of The Next High Tide For The Following Locations Are: Aguadilla Harbor: 6:44 AM AST Friday Morning At 1.42 Feet. 6:32 PM AST Friday Evening At 0.93 Feet. Arecibo Harbor: 6:57 AM AST Friday Morning At 1.92 Feet. 6:43 PM AST Friday Evening At 1.25 Feet. San Juan Harbor: 7:30 AM AST Friday Morning At 1.79 Feet. 7:00 PM AST Friday Evening At 1.18 Feet. Palominos Island: 7:18 AM AST Friday Morning At 1.89 Feet. 7:09 PM AST Friday Evening At 1.38 Feet. Magens Bay St Thomas: 8:12 AM AST Friday Morning At 1.49 Feet.

A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In The Advisory Area...Producing Rip Currents And Localized Beach Erosion. Local Beach Goers...And Inexperienced Surfers And Swimmers Should Stay Out Of The Water Until These Hazardous Surf Conditions Subside. Persons On The Beach Should Be Vigilant For Large Breaking Waves Surging Upon The Shore...Which Can Carry People Of All Sizes Into The Ocean. You Should Avoid Being Near The Shore Line And Stay Off Of Rock Formations.

All the best,

Kevin

[mnfun2bme]

Hi Kevin,
Do you have an alert set up for this or did you just happen to catch it?
If there is an alert system, I'd love to sign up for notifications while we are at Coconuts a month from today.

Thanks!

[Coconuts]

mnfun: Hi! I receive both text messages and emails with alerts about earthquakes, tsunamis, and a few other conditions; the sign-up web site is here: https://users.vialert.gov/

Make sure that you apply appropriate filters, or you will receive way too many alerts. I get at most one a week with my current settings. There are zillions of small earthquakes, so I set this filter to Richter 4.0 and above.

Post some nice sunset shots, and I would be remiss if I didn't mention that during your visit, the St. John Singers will perform their wonderful pair of Christmas Chorals, in both the Nazareth Lutheran Church in Cruz Bay, and (our favorite) at the Emmaus Moravian Church in Coral Bay.

All the best,

Kevin

[Exit Zero]

This graph will show the N. Swell in close to real time.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=GMT

[Coconuts]

The alert said that the big swells would arrive on Friday morning, and they nailed it. Buoy data image below; live updates at the link in Exit Zero's post.

Wave height at buoy 41043

Edit Sunday: Here is what is causing the waves:

Atlantic storm

All the best,

Kevin

[lprof]

For those who are active on Facebook, Steve Simsonen was on Tortola today and snapped some pretty cool pix of surfers riding those waves!

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set ... 667&type=1

[James S]

Here's a pictures of the waves at Cinnamon yesterday. There were a few people trying to surf and I was able to capture one standing up.

[smilesfromMN]

So are these waves the result of the "Christmas Winds" that are always mentioned?
Is it likely to happen again near Christmas? Or is it a once a season type thing?
We'll be down in 36 days and I'm wondering if we can assume that we are "in the clear" from these winds, or if they may (or are likely to) occur again.

Thanks!

[mnfun2bme]

Hi MNSmiles - they are called, "Christmas Winds".... but I've experienced them in January, too. Giant swells that affect the northshore. We were there in December one year and you literally could not stand in the water. It sweeps you off your feet. It was very dangerous. We are on the island for December 14-22 and I pray that we can experience some calm waters.

[Coconuts]

The shift in the trade wind direction from a bit south of east in summer, to a bit north of east in winter contributes to increased surf on exposed north shore beaches, but periods of really heavy surf conditions are due to swells generated by storms further out in the Atlantic. My earlier post in this thread included an NHC snapshot of a circulating low north of the VI, which then intensified to become a named tropical storm (Melissa) two days ago. It is picking up speed and won't be around much longer (although Portugal may feel its effects), but it is Atlantic storms such as these that kick up the big waves.

Tropical Storm Melissa

All the best,

Kevin

[Connie]

We just got back tonight. The waves at Jost were huge. Never saw anything like it. We saw now person get thrown out of a dinghy and with the next wave he was thrown back into it.

We also saw a woman have a very tough time where she had to be saved. Thrown in my high, fast, strong waves and then taken out. This happened over and over again.