Invest 98L

[Coconuts]

We will be arriving Saturday, the afternoon before what will probably be named as Tropical Storm Patty makes its closest approach to St. John. This morning, the ensemble track passed right through Tortola, but as of 8 PM Wednesday the averaged track has shifted ~150 miles eastward. Still, given its size, we are likely in for a blow, and an overflowing cistern. Anyone traveling soon will want to keep an eye on this.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Kevin

[GoldenDaze]

Thanks for the heads up Kevin. Safe travels.

[Chet]

We'll be sitting below in the aft seats on the Sunday ferry to Red Hook. Looks like a rough crossing.

[vacagirl]

Right there with you Chet. Coming in Sunday afternoon so I guess we will be sitting below as well.

[hotrns]

I guess we will be "lucky" enough to be 24 hours ahead of you (arriving on Sat).
O-well nothing to it but to stock up on rum and mixers and hunker down.

[Coconuts]

The storm tracks of the various atmospheric models were just updated (Thursday night, 8 PM), and the tracks now vary from directly over St. John to 200 miles east. 98L also seems to be picking up speed, with closest approach now looking like Saturday night. While the system's development and organization has also increased, wind speeds are still likely to be below or at most at tropical storm levels by the time it passes St. John. The rain will be welcome, if not excessive.

Kevin

[Coconuts]

The 2 PM Friday update has one model showing a pass over St. Croix and St. Thomas, while all other tracks are ~ 100 miles eastwards:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... &ft=0&sl=0

Note: To see the forecast tracks, you will need to click on the "Computer models" box in the option bar on the right.

Kevin

[Coconuts]

Invest 98L was just upgraded to Tropical storm Rafael (Patty was just used by a short-lived storm near the Bahamas), and the center of its wide cone of probability lies 50 miles east of the VI, with the closest approach coming mid afternoon on Saturday, naturally when our flight from Boston is supposed to be landing. Wind speeds at that time should be around 40 knots; a hurricane it is not, but our flight is likely to either be cancelled, or re-routed to San Juan. The St. Thomas to St. John ferry is also likely to shut down. For anyone traveling tomorrow, this storm is likely to disrupt things. Make sure that you check flight status before you head to the airport, and rain gear is in order.

Kevin

[lprof]

This is an ACTUAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALERT...
Headline: VITEMA to Activate Emergency Operations Centers Territory wide in Response to Tropical Storm Rafael
Activation Time: 10/12/12 10:10 PM
Expiration Time: 10/13/12 8:00 AM
Issued By: VITEMA
Affected Jurisdictions: St. Croix Island (All)
St. John Island (All)
St. Thomas Island (All)
Water Island (All)
Description:
The Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency, VITEMA, Director Elton Lewis will partially activate Emergency Operations Centers territorywide in response to Tropical Storm Rafael, which was located 200 miles south southeast of the VIrgin Islands at 8 p.m. and moving at 12 miles per hour with 40 miles per hour winds. FEMA support has also been requested and a forward team is expected in the Virgin Islands on Saturday morning.
Instructions:

The National Weather Service is forecasting that showers and thunderstorms, beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday, will dump 3 to 5 inches of rain on the Virgin Islands. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

VITEMA is urging the public to take all precautionary measures to protect life and property and to monitor VI Alert, TV and radio stations and NOAA weather radios for updated information on Tropical Storm Rafael and for flash flood watches and warnings.
http://www.vialert.gov/Public/News/AllH ... Type=ALERT