The 800 lb. Gorillas in the Election

[jmq]

It could be argued that Obama's race and McCain's age and health are the proverbial 800 lb. gorillas in the room that everybody knows are there but can't talk about without appearing to be racist or ageist.

Certainly, these are highly sensitive issues that have to be talked about very carefully using politically correct code words.

Regarding race, it seems divided out there if we will have a "Bradley Effect" or a "Reverse Bradley Effect" in this election.

What it is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

That it is a "myth" that has been debunked:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/ ... ffect.html

Either way, it may be more likely than not that the polls are going to be way off in some places. This is another reason it is so important to vote. Don't think that just because the polls and the pundits are saying that your candidate can't win your state that you shouldn't bother voting. There are too many wild cards in this election.

I also thought the study released a couple of weeks ago by Stanford researchers on this topic was fascinating. It was a front page piece in many papers. I'm sure Palin saw it because she reads "All of 'em". They used pretty rigorous research techniques to conclude that Obama's support would be about 6% higher if he were white.

This OpEd piece entitled "Racism Without Racists" makes reference to that study and other research on this topic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/opini ... istof.html

I hope I don't get flamed too badly for raising these issues. I tried to raise the legitimate issue of McCain's age and health in a neutral way by citing actuarial data in another post and got a predicable reply of righteous indignation, so be careful how you reply to this topic. The issue of race is hotter than abortion for some.

Example: I made an out context reference to a Bill Maher joke in that same thread that used an anachronistic racial expression that initially offended aroobagirl. Like abortion and most other emotionally charged "Third Rail Issues", you aren't going to change anybody's mind about how they feel about them, so maybe think twice about trying.

[loria]

I think you bring up very legitimate concerns about the health of John McCain. He has had a recurrence of Melanoma 3 times (or is it 4?) . to Most persons that would spell metastatic cancer. That is a TRUE concern and one that has not been adequately addressed by the campaign.

[Bug]

I do believe that both of these things you mention will come up sooner or later. Most likely later. When the election is over, the loosing candidate will site the reason for his loss as one you mentioned.

As you stated, both of these topics are highly sensitive issues. Obviously, race the worst of the two.

Although I do believe that we all have the right to our own opinion, I also believe that we all have the right to keep our mouths shut and that sometimes we should! When nothing good can come out of a topic, why discuss it?

You believe what you want, I'll believe what I want and we all live happily ever after. Amen

XOXO
Bug

[MIG]

Here's another one which is never mentioned...our $10,000,000,000,000 national debt. Both candidates keep hawking their versions of tax cuts and spending measures to help the middle class, but neither will acknowledge that our government is already in debt to a level which will ultimately sink our economy.

We're in the middle of a massive credit crisis, but all the government is doing is transferring these debts from corporate books, to its own. They will need to issue more bonds to pay for these crappy mortgage purchases, which in turn will eat up more available investment from the overall economy. How is that supposed to help loosen credit???

[soxfan22]

Don't think that just because the polls and the pundits are saying that your candidate can't win your state that you shouldn't bother voting.

I vote in every election, and will always do so. But know that I live in Connecticut. I am not exaggerating when I say that if Daffy Duck was running with a (D) next to his name, he would win here.

[SuefromMA]

Soxfan,

You think living in CT is tough, you should live in MA!! ARGH!!

[soxfan22]

Soxfan,

You think living in CT is tough, you should live in MA!! ARGH!!

Hey, the home of Barney Frank!

Seriously, he has naked pictures of people doing freaky things up there, doesn't he? How does he continue to get re-elected?

[SuefromMA]

Wow - you are adding insult to injury! Like I said, I don't know why I even bother to vote.

Of course, here in MA, we have the "original" together-we-can candidate (our Gov. Deval Patrick). Good news and bad news. If things continue the way that "the polls" are going - maybe he will be heading to Washington soon, with his pal.

[DaveS007]

Soxfan,

You think living in CT is tough, you should live in MA!! ARGH!!

I feel your pain - I'm in NY.

Well there's three for NObama.

[bayer40601]

Well there's three for NObama.

And likely not to be anywhere near the end of it.

[soxfan22]

Well there's three for NObama.

And likely not to be anywhere near the end of it.

Eh, not necessarily.

There was a CBS poll about two weeks ago at the beginning of this "Obama surge" in the polls, whicg showed him to have I believe a 10 or 11 point lead.

As you looked further into the poll, you saw that they stacked the deck with 1/3 republicans and 2/3 democrats. Well, in that case, I was actually surprised to see he was only up 10 or 11.

The media is in the tank for him, they will do whatever the need to do for him to win (or in many cases, not do). That includes fixing these polls to demoralize conservatives and right-leaning independents.

I don't trust polls. Show me the returns on 11/4 (not to say that Obama will not win, however).

[Teresa_Rae]

Soxfan,

You think living in CT is tough, you should live in MA!! ARGH!!

I feel your pain - I'm in NY.

Well there's three for NObama.

Here in Illinois, Chicago elects our public officials and the rest of us don’t have a voice. For example in the 2004 Presidential election, Bush handily won the state of Illinois...outside of Chicago that is. If you omit Cook County from the results, Bush got 54.3% of the vote to Kerry’s 45.1%...a 9.2% margin of victory...but all you ever hear is that Illinois is a blue state...but it is not...it is a red state with one really big blue city. It is extremely frustrating to have your vote not matter. I think a lot of conservatives don't even bother to vote in Illinois because they know that they can't overcome the Chicago machine.

[California Girl]

Teresa Rae - When I was in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, judging from the merchandise in the stores and in the hotel gift shop, you'd think Obama was the only candidate. I did see one fellow standing on the sidewalk with a sandwich board over his shoulders listing some negative things about Obama, but I didn't stop to read them. My view of Chicago was that it was a totally Democrat city.

Nothing negative here, just an observation.

[bayer40601]

I provide the following two links for all to peruse. After you have done so, tell me where you think Sen. McCain is going to make it up.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Is there anyone of those polls you trust? How about Rasmussen. I think it's the one Fox News uses.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... cain/#data

It appears the Battleground States poll numbers are the most interesting.

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