Airfare Predictions

Travel discussion for St. John
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Tracy in WI
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Post by Tracy in WI »

I hope you're all correct on the waiting part because I just booked three tickets for June 28th at $569/ea out of Chicago. The past two years we paid $430. I then went back to check for additional seats for some friends who are joinung us and the same flight is now $870.

Quite a big jump!

Tracy
Tracy, Seaside Properties at Grande Bay
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mia
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Post by mia »

Thanks SJ from NJ...but lbrlwyr is the one who is asking about booking flights for his trip in June. :D
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Nancy_B
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Post by Nancy_B »

Mia, SJ was actually responding to my question about May - thanks!
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mia
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Post by mia »

I stand corrected.

Thanks SJ from NJ...but Nancy_B is the one who is asking about booking flights for his trip in June. :wink:
It takes both the sun and the rain to make a beautiful rainbow. --Unknown
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sherban
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Post by sherban »

I'm waiting to book my 6/21-28 trip...fares are too high for me. Kayak dot com provides good tools to understand airfares and TRENDS...
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mricco
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airfare predictions

Post by mricco »

Not to make you feel bad but when we bought our tickets for our June trip to St. John 7 weeks ago we paid $292.00 through Spirit from Detroit. Check them everyday as you never know what they are offering.
Good luck,
Mricco
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mricco
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airfare predictions

Post by mricco »

I'm back, just checked Spirit and the price is $454.00 from D.C. They have a sale going today so that is a little savings.
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irbgolfin
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Shari in July...

Post by irbgolfin »

Shari,

I'm also in Cincinnati and my wife is a school teacher, so our travel is limited to times like spring break and summer. I'm paying $15 each for our June trip*

*full disclosure, that's $15 in taxes since I'm using FF miles... :-)

Seriously, over the last several years I've flown from CVG to SJU, STT X 3 (plus 1 booked) and 1 to SXM. While all were FF miles, I have watched fares for those trips to get a feel for the price. With all the changes going on with the airlines I've been using up my miles (they are getting harder to book by the day it seems), and our trip this June puts us well below enough for another trip (and I don't fly anymore so it's not been going up), while I want to keep going, $800 plane tickets = no trip in my book, there are other options.

During the summer travel times $500 is about the best I've seen to the Caribbean (SJU can be less). My current trip in June (which is Wed-Wed to get the FF tix) is going for $775. In my experience of checking, something in the $700-800 range is more typical. For all those reading, that is not a misprint, CVG has been ranked the #1 most expensive airport for awhile (side note - several years ago when I flew regularly on business it was $900 to most anywhere, even 2 hour flights for day trips - I actually flew to Japan on JAL for the same price as a round trip to MSP - go figure - I also recently read on flyertalk that the current business trip out of CVG is running $1,600 per - I attribute it to the Delta monopoly, er I mean hub, - while someone is obviously paying those $$$ it ain't us). I would love to be able to buy a $300 ticket to STT! They are available on occasion in the fall and off days, but we can't go then.

Bottom line - I would not hold my breath for a sub $500 ticket this summer out of CVG.

To those of you wanting/waiting on cheaper tix, good luck. Probably all this tells you is that there's more to plane fare pricing than common sense and cost. Hopefully all find a price they're happy with and get to enjoy a trip the USVI.

As for me, barring pricing changes from CVG or winning the lottery, this is the last trip I expect to the Caribbean for awhile.
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Randy in MD
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Post by Randy in MD »

NancyB - I'm no expert on flights out of Philly as I live midway between DCA and BWI and for the last year or so, AA's fares out of National have been phenomenal - due to the competition from Spirit I think. We flew a dozen times out of National last year and the most we paid was $268/RT. You just have to lie in wait and look at those fares every day, and when they go down - you strike. Kind of like a pelican going after a fish at Maho... I booked a couple trips at a time when that happened. I always check first thing in the morning, just after I check the ferry dock webcam. Priorities, you know. When the fares went to $210/RT in January I booked trips for March and October. We won't be going down a dozen times this year since our house is done (whew!), but I'm watching our rental calendar for the summer so that when the fares go down again we'll book another visit. irbgolfin - AA dropped their fares out of DCA on at least 4 occasions last year and it was always a steep drop. It will drive you crazy but you just have to be patient. I'm guessing March or April at the latest. Last time it happened was Thursday morning, 1/17. It WILL happen and I'll post a note on the forum when it does...
irbgolfin
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Post by irbgolfin »

Just to clarify for folks - my comments above were in reference to flights out of CVG on the pricing!!!! Hopefully that was clear.

For those in other locations, it may be hard to appreciate but CVG is a unique departure airport (along with a few others, but we're #1!). While not a road warrior, I’ve got over 500,000 air miles on 4 airlines to 3 continents. That doesn’t count car miles -the end of my traveling occupation was mostly spent in the car, we’d drive anything up to 300 miles one way for a day trip due to $900-1000 airfare, saved money for the company and used lots of our time (yes, 500-600 miles total driving with 4-6 hours working and no overnight, saving money on hotels you know, also reporting at 8 AM next day, no respite). Needless to say, I made the decision to do something different.

We have driven to nearby airports (have 5 choices up to about 100 miles) to get better prices (ex. from a few years ago - 1 round trip CVG-PHX was $600 CHEAPEST SATURDAY NIGHT STAY FARE, while cost was less than $200 from SDF, about 100 miles away – same airline and we changed planes in CVG and got on that same flight that was $600 direct - pre 9/11 I took my 2 kids to visit my sister in PHX for spring break, wife drove us to SDF, we didn't check luggage on the way back, and what do you know we missed that connection... 3 of us flew for less than 1 from CVG with a car drive to SDF - these days I'd probably be flagged for a security check next time through). And in the future I would seriously consider a trip from a more far flung city with a good fare to STT assuming it was somewhere I wanted to visit and could tie a drive in with a trip to make it worthwhile. I once sent a letter to Delta relating to another problem and mentioned the CVG pricing, got a canned response about how they offer so much value with all the direct flights everywhere and that we should be happy... well, I change planes in ATL to go to STT, and folks in other places pay less and fly direct, just a bunch of marketing crap IMHO... maybe good for business flyers but there is a limited leisure market from CVG thanks to all those direct flights...

Wish I was closer to DCA, I have watched them from Cincy and subscribed to the e-mail notifications… they just don’t drop from here, at least when I can travel, I have seen better rates when school’s in session… I’ve watched a bunch as I’ve used up my miles (Skysavers have been tough enough to come by, I won’t pony up for Skygouge), don't want to skip the USVI but won't pay $800 to fly… Have to maintain that #1 status…

BTW – for Randy - I have 2 hobbies, golf and pinball, we've exchanged an e-mail on Madness... :-) Strange, but in a good way... Congrats on getting the rentals going, I wish you many pleasant trips to RM… Knowing where you’re at now I wish we’d tried to book it, but I’m a wimp and wouldn’t take the chance when we pulled the trigger… We’ll be across Coral Bay in June trying to pick it out… sitting next to the pool… in the hot sun… with an adult beverage… aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh…

irbgolfin – aka Bernie the pinhead
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RickG
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Post by RickG »

I do two or three STJ trips a year form DC and have flown all three area airports and have started from one and finished from the other. I would just recommend hitting the individual airline sites as well as orbitz and kayak/sidestep. Orbitz and kayak will do combo fares with different airlines for the trip out and back.

One thing to consider is that Fairfax County schools get out the week before your planned trip. That is a high demand travel weekend. If you can leave on Friday 6/20 you may see much better fares. That's what we did for Spring Break this year.

Cheers, RickG
S/V Echoes - Coral Bay - St. John, VI
Cid
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Airfare

Post by Cid »

I also did a lot of research on flights. We booked out of Boston even though it's a 3 hour drive from Vermont. I found the best fares were from cheaptickets.com because they mixed and matched airlines to get the best fares. Our fares were $275 per person round trip. Those DC flights sound expensive, but Rick may have hit upon the reason...high demand. We booked mid-week and saved a lot of money.
Still waiting to return to St. John!
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LMG
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Post by LMG »

That mid-week arrival and departure has proved to be a smart move for me lately, and not just to STT. (I know this is not a secret to anyone.)

I am still jealous of all you East coasters and your prices, but I just got a ticket out of our smaller airport for $521 and feel like the luckiest girl ever. (Of course, that also might have something to do with the destination. :) )
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