Tropical Depression

Patty · Post by **Patty** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:04 am

Okay folks, this is making me nervous:

Good morning,

Happy Friday to all!! The vanguard of the 2011 hurricane season has passed with the first 3 named storms in the books and TS Don winding his way towards the Northern Mexican/South Texas border. Don's time to reach minimal hurricane status is almost over and, due to it's small stature, may not bring as much needed rain as many would want but in any case, a little is better than the big "0" they have been getting!

Our probable 5th named storm is still several days away from the Leeward and Windward Islands. This would be Emily. Currently just an Invest (91), this system is expected to intensify over the next few days and could even become the first hurricane of the season by Tuesday depending on several factors which include lessening wind shear, warmer sea surface temperatures, and a moister air environment. As it is a large wave with already lowering pressures, the potential here is enormous down the road. If you haven't prepared by now, I suggest you might think about it seriously.

Current track and intensity suggest a medium strength TS in 24-36 hours and a minimal hurricane in 48-60 hours trekking just south of Guadaloupe as it heads NE. As this system is not organized yet, this forecast is definitely not totally reliable but it still gives us an idea of what could lie ahead. I think it's a rather bullish forecast at the moment but gradual development, not rapid, is almost certain. This wave gives off bad vibes. There have been only 2 Cat 5 storms before the middle of August; Emily in 2005 and Allen in 1980. Then we have memories of Dean and Felix, 2 Cat 5's that trekked through the southern and middle Caribbean Islands both in 2007 and just weeks apart.

Just getting ready to exit the coast of Africa is another wave but it is higher up and behind that, the waves look like they have their marching orders as several appear to have started a conga line headed west. This does not bode well. More tonight.

Dave

this is from stormcarib.com

YIKES!!!!!

msgcolleen · Post by **msgcolleen** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 10:16 am

No worries mon . . . just keep your bathing suit on at all times!

silverheels · Post by **silverheels** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:26 pm

Just keep blowing it the other way. It won't dampen my vacation. Got my Kindle loaded with books anyway. I survived Earl last year and am prepared for whatever comes our way. Just don't let it rain on Gerie's wedding!!

Coden · Post by **Coden** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:54 pm

Pshaw I say, pshaw!!

Of course my fingers are crossed as I say it.

lprof · Post by **lprof** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:19 pm

Remember that you can sign up for alerts... may be useful while you are in the islands.
http://www.vitema.gov/

Example:
Alert / Warning
Meteorological - Other Un-Categorized Meteorological Event
...This is an ACTUAL OTHER UN-CATEGORIZED METEOROLOGICAL EVENT ALERT..
Issued By: VITEMA
Affected Jurisdictions: Virgin Islands

Headline: VITEMA Monitoring Large Tropical Wave in the Atlantic; Conditions Favorable for Development into a Storm

The Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA) is monitoring a large tropical wave developing in the Atlantic, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

According to the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center at Miami, the tropical wave is accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system and is continuing to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development over the next few days.

National Weather Service, today, informed VITEMA that this system currently has a medium chance, 30 percent, of becoming a tropical storm during the next 48 hours as it moves westward or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. According to the National Weather Service, early projections show this system reaching the Virgin Islands by Tuesday and, based on its current behavior, bringing significant rainfall and strong winds.

VITEMA has placed its Emergency Operations Centers on high alert for possible activation this weekend, as it continues to monitor the system for development. The public is being urged to stay informed and to begin assessing preparations for storm impact.

VITEMA is encouraging individuals, families and businesses to monitor this system and to ensure they are ready in the event a storm develops and impacts the Virgin Islands. Everyone should have an emergency plan for staying in contact with family in the event of a disaster and an emergency supply kit with essential items to last for up to three days. For more preparedness information visit www.VITEMA.gov ("http://www.VITEMA.gov") .

VITEMA will continue to keep the public informed of this developing system and is also urging everyone to stay tuned to local radio and TV, to NOAA weather radio and VI Alert for updated information, watches and warnings.

Post by **Anthony** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:26 pm

I will be watching that one -

http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurric ... -wave.html

You can also sign up for my alerts from the hurricane blog if you want - I send stuff out during active Caribbean storms.

jmq · Post by **jmq** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:03 pm

Looking at these potential tracks, definitely something for the VIs to keep an eye on over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center says “This disturbance continues to show signs of organization and environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. It is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.”

If this thing gets organized and starts to rotate, the weather geek forums speak of “good conditions aloft” and “healthy inflow” and that “the pattern of the system suggests that once it pulls together it could blow up”.

If this becomes a named storm (it would be named “Emily”) before Aug 1 then that makes three named storms in July which is fairly active. Then we would be nearly 3-4 weeks ahead of last year's hurricane season in number of named storms.

Post by **Anthony** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:48 pm

jmq do you want to run my hurricane blog???

Knolmom · Post by **Knolmom** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 5:52 pm

Oy!!! just when I get DH on the mend and everyone else on the same page, the threat of bad weather surfaces. Guess I'll have to do the "Jesus take the wheel" thing again. It worked last week.

msgcolleen · Post by **msgcolleen** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:15 pm

AMEN Sister!
The ocean is huge! St. John is tiny! Let's pray it pushes to the north or south of our island!! PU-LEEZE!

Post by **Anthony** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:45 am

Looking more ominous this morning (check the composite track here http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurric ... ing-g.html ) - don't forget that you need to buy your trip insurance before a storm is named to be covered - if you are leaving soon, it is looking like a good investment this morning - I would not wait much longer:

http://www.csatravelprotection.com/?aff=VIONLINE

Coden · Post by **Coden** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 9:25 am

Ok - quick everyone...go stand outside, face Southeast and blow Emily back from hence she came!! Maybe, if we all do it at 10 AM EST maybe it will work.

gelopee · Post by **gelopee** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:16 am

cypressgirl · Post by **cypressgirl** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:20 pm

I hope that all of you who are traveling soon have a great vacation, with NO STORMS!!

Teresa_Rae · Post by **Teresa_Rae** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:54 pm

Ugh, does anybody know a good place for specifics? Like the potential timing of this?

usvi-on-line