usvi-on-line
Worry about Earl?
Worry about Earl?
Set to leave the island on Tues. afternoon. Tropical watch only now. Any cause to worry or change plans early? I am on the wait and see side, but we are traveling with our 11 month old. Any more experienced viewpoints welcome. Very beautiful here today!
It usually is very beautiful before a storm as the system soaks up moisture - you are leaving from the VI Tuesday? It looks like forecast wise it should be past by then, so unless the path changes and there is actually storm damage to the islands, airport, etc. it would appear that you should be okay... but - this is nature - you never know!
Anthony for Virgin Islands On Line
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bayer40601
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- Location: Kentucky
Storm Carib (stormcarib.com) has a tool which will calculate the closest point a storm will come to any particular island. At the present time their tool calculates the storm will come it closest to STJ on Monday night at about 9:06 pm and it will be 79.8 miles NE and moving away from that point. As for leaving Tuesday, if the tool is correct, that might be optimistic.
Here is the link: http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi
Here is the link: http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi
Last edited by bayer40601 on Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
How many more days?
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Randy in MD
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bayer40601
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- Location: Kentucky
In your situation, I would attempt to leave. IF earl does pass to the north and east, we may not get very much wind, since the southwest side is by far the calmest. However, the track has been edging westward, and it is predicted to be a category 2 hurricane by Monday night. They are pretty good at those predictions. If I had an option, I'd probably want to leave myself...
If you can't change your flights and it isn't easy to leave, are you in a protected situation? Villas with great views and breeze are often the worst spots in a storm. If the storm is coming even more in our direction and you are doubtful about the strength of the building or the location, you might want to move to a St. Thomas hotel for Monday night at least.
Lets hope the track that is currently predicted holds... Best of luck to you nad your family.
If you can't change your flights and it isn't easy to leave, are you in a protected situation? Villas with great views and breeze are often the worst spots in a storm. If the storm is coming even more in our direction and you are doubtful about the strength of the building or the location, you might want to move to a St. Thomas hotel for Monday night at least.
Lets hope the track that is currently predicted holds... Best of luck to you nad your family.
Earl certainly is concerning, hope those on the island are kept safe and those that want to get out can. It looks like it's going to be a close call. Here are a couple more resources I like to check when keeping tabs on my favorite little island. (besides the storm carib folks)
http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-earl-2010
really cool graphical site
http://flhurricane.com/
slightly nerdy, but some of the discussions are enlightening, basically a forum for florida hurricane weather geeks. But they certainly know their stuff.
Stay safe everyone!
http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-earl-2010
really cool graphical site
http://flhurricane.com/
slightly nerdy, but some of the discussions are enlightening, basically a forum for florida hurricane weather geeks. But they certainly know their stuff.
Stay safe everyone!
Yes this is one of those creepers - it has consistently slid a bit south forecast by forecast - if you read the NHC reports closely some of the other models had it down here before they did... it is sort of amazing how these things are forecast. They can always turn any way they want - the models can only predict on current conditions and past behavior - you never really know.
Anthony for Virgin Islands On Line
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tedprosser
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- Location: Coral Bay, STJ
As someone who has tried to change flights, I can tell you it's a pretty bleak shot right now. Today would be the day to leave, and right now that's just not looking possible. I was given the option of stand-by at the airport, and being stuck at STT airport with no chance of a taxi/ferry situation back to a safe place (for me) did not sound like a good option.
Luckily I am with educated, experienced people who will tell me the right things to do if need be. If I were staying in a villa, I'd contact the management if they haven't contacted you already and inquire about emergency procedure as I know almost everyone has a plan.
Best of luck to you. This is not something I've ever experienced and it certainly wasn't on my life list. Praying for everyone with loved ones and property in the storm's path.
Luckily I am with educated, experienced people who will tell me the right things to do if need be. If I were staying in a villa, I'd contact the management if they haven't contacted you already and inquire about emergency procedure as I know almost everyone has a plan.
Best of luck to you. This is not something I've ever experienced and it certainly wasn't on my life list. Praying for everyone with loved ones and property in the storm's path.
To be safe, bring inside anything that can move - including all planted pots. Chances are Earl will be a TS as it moves NW past STJ...
Tropical Storm Earl
The bigger concern in the Atlantic today is Tropical Storm Earl. Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielle's, but is now farther south than Danielle was. Recent satellite imagery shows the storm has changed little in organization this morning. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, and this dry air is keeping Earl's heavy thunderstorm activity relatively meager. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that northerly upper-level winds due to the outflow from Hurricane Danielle are creating a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Earl. This shear is keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of Earl's center of circulation. The center of circulation is now exposed to view, which is always a sign of a tropical storm struggling with high wind shear. The first flight into Earl is scheduled for 4pm EDT this afternoon, and will be a research mission by NOAA's P-3s. The NOAA jet will also fly tonight to sample the large-scale steering currents. The first regular hurricane hunting mission by the Air Force is scheduled for Sunday morning.
Intensity forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain moderate this afternoon, 10 - 15 knots, then fall a bit to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots through Monday, as Danielle pulls away and its upper-level outflow stops bringing northerly wind shear to Earl. This reduction in shear should allow the storm to build heavy thunderstorms around the entire center of circulation on Sunday, and close off Earl's core from the dry air to the northwest. SSTs will warm from 29°C today to nearly 30°C on Sunday. These very high SSTs, combined with the low shear environment expected Sunday and Monday, should allow to Earl to intensify into a hurricane by Monday. Earl will likely be a major hurricane by Tuesday and Wednesday, as it moves northwestward between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. As Earl approaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle will allow Earl the opportunity to move more to the west-northwest, likely bringing the core of the storm just to the northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Sunday night and Monday morning. However, it is possible that Earl could move directly over some of these northernmost islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and an 18% chance of getting hurricane force winds. Heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds should begin affecting the islands Saint Maarten, Barbuda, and Antigua late Sunday night. The odds of Earl bringing tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico are lower--25%, according to NHC.
Tropical Storm Earl
The bigger concern in the Atlantic today is Tropical Storm Earl. Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielle's, but is now farther south than Danielle was. Recent satellite imagery shows the storm has changed little in organization this morning. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, and this dry air is keeping Earl's heavy thunderstorm activity relatively meager. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that northerly upper-level winds due to the outflow from Hurricane Danielle are creating a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Earl. This shear is keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of Earl's center of circulation. The center of circulation is now exposed to view, which is always a sign of a tropical storm struggling with high wind shear. The first flight into Earl is scheduled for 4pm EDT this afternoon, and will be a research mission by NOAA's P-3s. The NOAA jet will also fly tonight to sample the large-scale steering currents. The first regular hurricane hunting mission by the Air Force is scheduled for Sunday morning.
Intensity forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain moderate this afternoon, 10 - 15 knots, then fall a bit to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots through Monday, as Danielle pulls away and its upper-level outflow stops bringing northerly wind shear to Earl. This reduction in shear should allow the storm to build heavy thunderstorms around the entire center of circulation on Sunday, and close off Earl's core from the dry air to the northwest. SSTs will warm from 29°C today to nearly 30°C on Sunday. These very high SSTs, combined with the low shear environment expected Sunday and Monday, should allow to Earl to intensify into a hurricane by Monday. Earl will likely be a major hurricane by Tuesday and Wednesday, as it moves northwestward between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. As Earl approaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle will allow Earl the opportunity to move more to the west-northwest, likely bringing the core of the storm just to the northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Sunday night and Monday morning. However, it is possible that Earl could move directly over some of these northernmost islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and an 18% chance of getting hurricane force winds. Heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds should begin affecting the islands Saint Maarten, Barbuda, and Antigua late Sunday night. The odds of Earl bringing tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico are lower--25%, according to NHC.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
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bayer40601
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sailorgirl
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You've gotten some good advice. Leaving is proabaly no longer an option. Don't feel foolish about over preparing. Think about the basics,if it hits, power will likely go out. No power no water. No water no toilets. Get some block ice and load up the freezer with it. Make sure you have what the baby needs now as after the storm hits supplies might be difficult to come by. Stock pile drinking water and non potable water for bathing.Fill the bath tubs up. Make sure you have batteries and the flash lites work. Charge up any electonics like lap tops and use them sparingly after the power goes out, fill up the gas tank on the rental car. No power no gasoline.
The stove should still work, but any automatic ingition system will not, check you have matches.
Simple things, but I would much rather have too much on hand than too little.
Good advice to bring anything not nailed down inside, in high wind they become projectiles.
Most villas have storm shutters and the owners require that the managment comanies shut them in anticipation of a storm, it will make life inside the villa very uncomfortable but not dnagerous.
The stove should still work, but any automatic ingition system will not, check you have matches.
Simple things, but I would much rather have too much on hand than too little.
Good advice to bring anything not nailed down inside, in high wind they become projectiles.
Most villas have storm shutters and the owners require that the managment comanies shut them in anticipation of a storm, it will make life inside the villa very uncomfortable but not dnagerous.