Stat Geek called the Election

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jmq
Posts: 2373
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:32 am
Location: NJ

Stat Geek called the Election

Post by jmq »

Worth noting that baseball stat whiz Nate Silver called for Obama to get over 340 electoral votes and even nailed the popular vote at his site by crunching the poll data at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
His prediction: 52.3 percent Obama, 46.3 percent McCain. Actuals: 52.4 percent Obama, 46.3 percent McCain. Within a tenth of a percent. There are a couple of million votes yet uncounted, but Silver has already extrapolated how those will play out, and he's still close.

Confession: I relied on his site to lay a few bets with some McCain friends that not only Obama would win, but would do so by greater than 320 electoral votes. They eagerly took me up with those odds. I'll be adding a few bottles of top shelf rum and tequila to the liquor cabinet as a result. Thanks Nate!
Anybody else make any friendly wagers?
When we come to place where the sea and the sky collide
Throw me over the edge and let my spirit glide
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flip-flop
Posts: 4034
Joined: Fri Aug 11, 2006 11:17 am
Location: Northern VA

Post by flip-flop »

Stat geeks rule! LOL...
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loria
Posts: 3124
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2008 3:33 pm
Location: NY

Post by loria »

Love Nate! been following this site for ages--and he is spot on--
FWIW, the rest of the time i believe he does baseball stats...for those of you in betting mode......
< leaving on the 22nd of march...but too lame to figure out the ticker thing again!>
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