Stat Geek called the Election
Posted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:41 am
Worth noting that baseball stat whiz Nate Silver called for Obama to get over 340 electoral votes and even nailed the popular vote at his site by crunching the poll data at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
His prediction: 52.3 percent Obama, 46.3 percent McCain. Actuals: 52.4 percent Obama, 46.3 percent McCain. Within a tenth of a percent. There are a couple of million votes yet uncounted, but Silver has already extrapolated how those will play out, and he's still close.
Confession: I relied on his site to lay a few bets with some McCain friends that not only Obama would win, but would do so by greater than 320 electoral votes. They eagerly took me up with those odds. I'll be adding a few bottles of top shelf rum and tequila to the liquor cabinet as a result. Thanks Nate!
Anybody else make any friendly wagers?
His prediction: 52.3 percent Obama, 46.3 percent McCain. Actuals: 52.4 percent Obama, 46.3 percent McCain. Within a tenth of a percent. There are a couple of million votes yet uncounted, but Silver has already extrapolated how those will play out, and he's still close.
Confession: I relied on his site to lay a few bets with some McCain friends that not only Obama would win, but would do so by greater than 320 electoral votes. They eagerly took me up with those odds. I'll be adding a few bottles of top shelf rum and tequila to the liquor cabinet as a result. Thanks Nate!
Anybody else make any friendly wagers?