USVI-On-Line

Tropical Storm Chantal doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but the ECMWF, the model that called Sandy making a direct hit on NJ 10 days out, has it right over the VI in 48 hours. Could be a lot of wind and rain at the least:



More here: http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurric ... chantal-1/

Go away Chantal! I see some villa days in my near future...

I thought the winds were normal for this time of yr. we have had steady 20-30 mph winds on mamey peak since arrival on the 4th. not planning to leave until the 11th, but I will keep an eye out. thanks for the heads up.

papabou

Just a reminder for visitors that the Virgin Islands Territorial Management agency website has current information with alerts to email and phones available.

http://www.vitema.gov/

I've found this site to be very accurate in the past:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Check the left hand side for the specific storm and click.

See you in a few weeks!

SS

Yes I know the Navy site - it is good - but just one of many models! The NHC (unless I have this wrong) uses a blend of the existing models and then of course their own meteorologists add their expertise. The track on the NHC site is very close to that of the Navy site - if not exactly the same. I am not sure if they are using the same one or if it just looks like that. The site I first mentioned, the ECMWF, doesn't even seem to have this system as a low on their map a few days out... so we'll see whose computers got it right!

We are in Miami right now and have a flight to St. Thomas getting in around 12:30PM then taxi to Red Hook to catch the 2 PM ferry to St. John. Do you think the ferry will be running then? Anyone know? I'm hoping to beat the worst and get to the Westin.

TropicAtHeart: No worries; Chantal's path is well south of the VI, and its wind speeds are low and expected to stay so. You have zero chance of a ferry shutdown today. Enjoy your visit!

All the best,

Kevin

TropicAtHeart wrote:We are in Miami right now and have a flight to St. Thomas getting in around 12:30PM then taxi to Red Hook to catch the 2 PM ferry to St. John. Do you think the ferry will be running then? Anyone know? I'm hoping to beat the worst and get to the Westin.

As of right now, the ferries are still operating as normal. You will be fine.

Kevin, are you on island now?

I've been following links to all the tropical storm tracking sites, but realize that I don't really know what they mean. It looks like the eye of the storm is well past StJ by now, but is there rain and wind fanning out all around it?

We're flying to MSP->MIA->STT tomorrow. It seems pretty clear that we should be in and out of Miami before the storm gets there, which speaks to my worst fear (spending the night in the Miami airport). But will it be raining and blustering tomorrow afternoon as we're trying to ferry to STJ? Is it raining now?

I'm on St. John now. We had an awesome flight and the ferry ride was beautiful and a nice partly sunny sky. It never rained today. In fact we enjoyed the pool until sunset. We are expecting possible rain overnight, but they say it should be all clear by 1PM or so. The storm has broken up and not well organized anymore thanks to the good Lord. We pray it will not cause too much flooding in Haiti (they still don't have mature trees in many areas).

When you use a site like http://www.weathercarib.com click on the water vapor loops and you can get a very graphic idea of the rainbands - it isn't raining here yet.
You can also click on the radar and see the rain and intensity.
STT/STJ are about 18.4' N and 64.4' W if you are checking co-ordinates.
1.0' degrees N or S latitude = 60nm. so if the center was located at 15.2' N it would be about 190nm S of us when it crosses 64.4'W
This should give you a good water vapor loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

Knolmom: "Are you on island now?" Alas, no, but we were down last month for a few weeks (mostly work, with some time off at the end when both villas were booked), and head down again in October for a few weeks of hopefully not so much work. Enjoy the remainder of your stay!

Hey, what with all of the weather discussions, I repaired my VI satellite weather site (which had been ailing), and will post shortly about this.

All the best,

Kevin

Thanks, Kevin. We are staying below you here in BG Estates and I thought you might be around