USVI-On-Line

Does anyone know where I can find statistics on the frequency of tropical depressions that hit the USVI area? We have been coming so St. John for 3 years now and we are trying to plan the dates of our next trip. We were first trying to get there toward the first of June. But the villa we wanted isn't available until the last week in June going into the first week in July. Isn't it true that we face more risks of being there during a tropical depression the further we push our trip out into the summer?

You'll find some numbers here:
http://www.vinow.com/usvi/weather.php

Officially hurricane season is June-November. Late August through September are peak. As the numbers show, June is the beginning of hurricane season, but there have been no recorded hurricanes in that month. The odds are greatly against a hurricane hitting, but sooner or later they do hit and late August through September is the most likely period. We stay out of the Caribbean from early August into October. There are just too many other months when it's not even a concern. We did go to Virgin Gorda in mid-October and really enjoyed being there in low season. It's a great time to be in the Caribbean as long as the island you're on isn't being hit or travel in that part of the Caribbean is being disrupted.

we went end June to July 5 had great weather last year. Mid - late July odds go up

The odds of getting a serious hurricane in late June are extremely low--even in July the storms tend to be relatively small and rare. Bertha, in 1996 (I think, there were so many in the late 90's I can't remember too well) was a July 8th direct hit on St. John, a Category One with really minimal damage.
Although tropical waves can start crossing from Africa as early as June, they rarely make it to depression strength. This is substantiated by St. John's average June rainfall: just about 3 inches, lower than both May and July...although this of course means that there have been a few years with 5 or 6 inches in June, but in general it's a month of low "variability". Pretty good bet!

Lex wrote:You'll find some numbers here:
http://www.vinow.com/usvi/weather.php

Officially hurricane season is June-November. Late August through September are peak. As the numbers show, June is the beginning of hurricane season, but there have been no recorded hurricanes in that month. The odds are greatly against a hurricane hitting, but sooner or later they do hit and late August through September is the most likely period. We stay out of the Caribbean from early August into October. There are just too many other months when it's not even a concern. We did go to Virgin Gorda in mid-October and really enjoyed being there in low season. It's a great time to be in the Caribbean as long as the island you're on isn't being hit or travel in that part of the Caribbean is being disrupted.

Thanks Lex. What about Tropical Depressions? I assume theose are more prevalent as you get into July and Ausgust as well? I've heard a lot of complaints about mosquitos but I've never had any mosquito issues on St. John (my Oklahoma peers say it's because I'm part Native American and mosquitos don't bother us) except for once when I went in September and a tropical depression had just left the island before we got there and the mosquitos were bad.

Thanks Hugo. Very informative.

We also run our very own hurricane blog on Caribbean-On-Line - we update often if and when there is any tropical activity:

http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/

You can sign up for alerts there too -

My dear hubby is a meteorologist...his rule of thumb on the weather is to plan summer trips to the Caribbean as early in the summer as possible, but no later than the end of July. This year we're barely squeaking by and will be on the island the last two weeks of July.

Trip Insurance! I've travelled to STJ only in July and August. Haven't had to use it, came close with TS Dean August 2007 but he passed by the day before we arrived. Made for an interesting ferry ride, but other than that the post TS eather was great!

We went the last week of August last year - it was the only time to squeeze in the last minute trip while the kiddo was out of school. The weather was great, the skeeters were another issue altogether. I wouldn't do it without trip insurance.

We're going in June this year.

I never travel in high season or deep hurricane season. Personally I am happy traveling anytime from April 15- July 15 - after that I figure I'm pushing my luck. I also like Early December but the water is much colder than in the summer. Still warm by most standards but noticably different.

As far as TD's are concerned we had one park over us in May one year for nearly a week.

I would also venutre to say that wer're in a whole new ballgame weather wise these days. Clearly weather patterns are shifting and to some degree becoming less predictable year to year.

Here in NOVA last week we got 7" of snow out of the blue on Monday with temps in the teens. Just 5 days later we had temps in the upper 70's and I had to turn the AC on in the house!! But global warming is a whole other subject.

Some folks LOVE to travel in the really off season August thru October but that's just not for me. Too sticky and buggy for me personally. Plus some stuff is closed.

Up til July 15 you should be pretty good. But like others mentioned if you're in doubt get Trip Insurance.